CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-06-02T06:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20403/-1
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-05T14:34Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 61.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -22715.60 hour(s)
Difference: 18.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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